William Katz:  Urgent Agenda

 

 

TRACKERS

Posted at 1:54 p.m. ET

Both our two standard trackers - Rasmussen and Gallup - are in for the day, as is the Hotline trackers.

As reported below, Rasmussen reports a three point McCain lead, same as yesterday.

Gallup reports a two-point McCain lead, a statistical tie.  McCain was up five points only three days ago. 

Hotline reports a one-point McCain lead.  Yesterday it had Obama up by one. 

So, averaging them, McCain is up by two.  But this may be deceptive.  Both Gallup and Hotline measure registered voters, Rasmussen measures likely voters.  McCain tends to do somewhat better among likely voters.  Traditionally, Republican voters are more likely to vote. 

So far the McCain convention bounce seems to be holding.  We'll watch that this week.  Also, these trackers are measuring only one night of surveys following Charlie Gibson's first interview with Sarah Palin.  And they are not measuring Obama's new aggressiveness.

Still, a very tight race.

September 13, 2008.